Considering Poisson model and headlines

I’m thinking about offering to run a quick Poisson model if they provide average goals for and against. We can also approximate using recent season stats, but we might need to ask clarifying questions about the round and opponent. Since they mentioned crafting a headline, perhaps they want to refine it. I'll suggest some polished headline variants in Chinese and propose options for what they might need, like optimization or a pre-match overview.Structuring analysis for draws

I want to keep the formatting light, maybe a bullet list is okay. I'll provide a generic analysis template, but without specifics on the opponents, I can't assert anything definitive.
For a sample draw probability forecast, in knockout matches among balanced teams, I might say the regulation draw rate is around 28-32%. It's crucial to keep the numbers accurate since draws in FA Cup matches often lead to extra time if they’re tied after 90 minutes. Typically, the probability of a draw in matches is about 25-30%, but tight matches could see that rise to 30-35%.
I should say something like: “90分钟内打平的概率在25-35%区间。” If their xG is close, maybe that could go up to 35-40%. I’ll also offer to compute a custom probability using the Poisson model with their specific inputs. Let's get this written up!